Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications

The real interest rate plays a central role in many important financial and macroeconomic models, including the consumption-based asset pricing model, neoclassical growth model, and models of the monetary transmission mechanism. We selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the time-series properties of real interest rates. A key stylized fact is that postwar real interest rates exhibit substantial persistence, shown by extended periods of time where the real interest rate is substantially above or below the sample mean. The finding of persistence in real interest rates is pervasive, appearing in a variety of guises in the literature. We discuss the implications of persistence for theoretical models, illustrate existing findings with updated data, and highlight areas for future research.Interest rates

Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications

The real interest rate plays a central role in many important financial and macroeconomic models, including the consumption-based asset pricing model, neoclassical growth model, and models of the monetary transmission mechanism. The authors selectively survey the empirical literature that examines the time-series properties of real interest rates. A key stylized fact is that postwar real interest rates exhibit substantial persistence, shown by extended periods when the real interest rate is substantially above or below the sample mean. The finding of persistence in real interest rates is pervasive, appearing in a variety of guises in the literature. The authors discuss the implications of persistence for theoretical models, illustrate existing findings with updated data, and highlight areas for future research.Interest rates

Common fluctuations in OECD budget balances

We analyze comovements in four measures of budget surpluses for 18 OECD countries for 1980-2008 with a dynamic latent factor model. The world factor in national budget surpluses declines substantially in the 1980s, rises throughout much of the 1990s to a peak in 2000, before declining again in the most recent period. This world factor explains a substantial portion of the variability in budget surpluses across countries. World factors in national output gaps, dividend-price ratios, and military spending significantly explain variation in the world budget surplus factor. The significant relationship between national output gaps and OECD measures of cyclically adjusted budget surpluses suggests that such cyclical measures inadequately adjust for the international business cycle. Sizable fluctuations in idiosyncratic components of national budget surpluses often readily relate to well known "unusual" country circumstances.Budget ; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Is inflation an international phenomenon?

Common shocks, similarities in central bank reaction functions, and international trade potentially produce common components in international inflation rates. This paper characterizes such links in international inflation rates with a dynamic latent factor model that decomposes inflation for 65 countries into world, regional, and idiosyncratic components. The world component accounts for 34% of inflation variability on average across countries, although the importance of this global factor differs substantially across countries. Variables that reflect policy as well as economic and financial development strongly explain the cross-section variation in the relative importance of global influences. A parsimonious model of time variation in the factor loadings shows that most countries became more sensitive to international inflation influences over 1951 2006. In addition, European-specific influences became more important over time for countries participating in European economic and monetary integration.Inflation (Finance)

A Modular Approach to Adaptive Reactive Streaming Systems

The latest generations of FPGA devices offer large resource counts that provide the headroom to implement large-scale and complex systems. However, there are increasing challenges for the designer, not just because of pure size and complexity, but also in harnessing effectively the flexibility and programmability of the FPGA. A central issue is the need to integrate modules from diverse sources to promote modular design and reuse. Further, the capability to perform dynamic partial reconfiguration (DPR) of FPGA devices means that implemented systems can be made reconfigurable, allowing components to be changed during operation. However, use of DPR typically requires low-level planning of the system implementation, adding to the design challenge. This dissertation presents ReShape: a high-level approach for designing systems by interconnecting modules, which gives a ‘plug and play’ look and feel to the designer, is supported by tools that carry out implementation and verification functions, and is carried through to support system reconfiguration during operation. The emphasis is on the inter-module connections and abstracting the communication patterns that are typical between modules – for example, the streaming of data that is common in many FPGA-based systems, or the reading and writing of data to and from memory modules. ShapeUp is also presented as the static precursor to ReShape. In both, the details of wiring and signaling are hidden from view, via metadata associated with individual modules. ReShape allows system reconfiguration at the module level, by supporting type checking of replacement modules and by managing the overall system implementation, via metadata associated with its FPGA floorplan. The methodology and tools have been implemented in a prototype for a broad domain-specific setting – networking systems – and have been validated on real telecommunications design projects

Forecasting the equity risk premium: The role of technical indicators

Ministry of Education, Singapore under its Academic Research Funding Tier

Fusion and Perspective Correction of Multiple Networked Video Sensors

A network of adaptive processing elements has been developed that transforms and fuses video captured from multiple sensors. Unlike systems that rely on end-systems to process data, this system distributes the computation throughout the network in order to reduce overall network bandwidth. The network architecture is scalable because it uses a hierarchy of processing engines to perform signal processing. Nodes within the network can be dynamically reprogrammed in order to compose video from multiple sources, digitally transform camera perspectives, and adapt the video format to meet the needs of specific applications. A prototype has been developed using reconfigurable hardware that collects and processes real-time, streaming video of an urban environment. Multiple video cameras gather data from different perspectives and fuse that data into a unified, top-down view. The hardware exploits both the spatial and temporal parallelism of the video streams and the regular processing when applying the transforms. Recon-figurable hardware allows for the functions at nodes to be reprogrammed for dynamic changes in topology. Hardware-based video processors also consume less power than high frequency software-based solutions. Performance and scalability are compared to a distributed software-based implementation. The reconfigurable hardware design is coded in VHDL and prototyped using Washington University’s Field Programmable Port Extender (FPX) platform. The transform engine circuit utilizes approximately 34 percent of the resources of a Xilinx Virtex 2000E FPGA, and can be clocked at frequencies up to 48 MHz. The com-position engine circuit utilizes approximately 39 percent of the resources of a Xilinx Virtex 2000E FPGA, and can be clocked at frequencies up to 45 MHz

The effects of exercise on cardiovascular biomarkers in patients with chronic heart failure

Exercise training is recommended for chronic heart failure (HF) patients to improve functional status and reduce risk of adverse outcomes. Elevated plasma levels of amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and cardiac troponin T (cTnT) are associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes in this patient population. Whether exercise training leads to improvements in biomarkers and how such improvements relate to clinical outcomes are unclear

Biomarkers of Myocardial Stress and Fibrosis as Predictors of Mode of Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure

To determine whether biomarkers of myocardial stress and fibrosis improve prediction of mode of death in patients with chronic heart failure